Early Warning for Maritime Storm Formation Using Temporal Autoencoder-Based Anomaly Detection
Journal of Engineering Research and Sciences, Volume 5, Issue 5, Page # 19-39, 2026; DOI: 10.55708/js0505003
Keywords: Storm formation, Maritime safety, Early warning, Anomaly detection, Temporal autoencoder, Multivariate time series.
(This article belongs to the Special Issue on SP9 (Special Issue on Multidisciplinary Sciences & Advanced Technology (SI-MSAT 2026)) and the Section Artificial Intelligence – Computer Science (AIC))
Export Citations
Cite
Srivastava, S. , Xu, H. , Yan, D. and Balasubramanian, R. (2026). Early Warning for Maritime Storm Formation Using Temporal Autoencoder-Based Anomaly Detection. Journal of Engineering Research and Sciences, 5(5), 19–39. https://doi.org/10.55708/js0505003
Snehashish Srivastava, Haiping Xu, Donghui Yan and Ramprasad Balasubramanian. "Early Warning for Maritime Storm Formation Using Temporal Autoencoder-Based Anomaly Detection." Journal of Engineering Research and Sciences 5, no. 5 (May 2026): 19–39. https://doi.org/10.55708/js0505003
S. Srivastava, H. Xu, D. Yan and R. Balasubramanian, "Early Warning for Maritime Storm Formation Using Temporal Autoencoder-Based Anomaly Detection," Journal of Engineering Research and Sciences, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 19–39, May. 2026, doi: 10.55708/js0505003.
Storms remain a serious hazard at sea, exposing vessels to rapidly changing conditions that endanger human life and result in substantial economic losses. Satellite-based detection methods are widely used but require significant computational resources and depend on land-to-sea communication links, which may become unreliable during severe weather. Machine learning approaches offer strong potential for early detection; however, they typically rely on large labeled datasets that are often unavailable for rare or rapidly developing storms. Moreover, many existing models depend on predefined storm signatures, limiting their ability to adapt to previously unseen conditions in real time. To address these challenges, we propose a sensor-based framework for early detection of non-tropical maritime storms using key meteorological variables, including atmospheric pressure, humidity, wind speed, sea surface temperature, and near-surface air temperature. These variables can be measured directly by onboard sensors, enabling continuous monitoring without reliance on external communication infrastructure. The proposed method employs a temporal autoencoder trained exclusively on storm-free data to learn normal atmospheric patterns and detect anomalies associated with storm development. By identifying deviations from normal temporal behavior, the framework provides early warnings before storms fully develop. Comprehensive case studies using both synthetic and real-world meteorological data demonstrate that the proposed approach can detect developing storms in advance, achieving average lead times exceeding one hour while maintaining strong detection performance. These results highlight the potential of the framework as a practical and reliable solution for enhancing maritime safety.
- FAO, “Fatalities in Fisheries,” Document X9656E, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, 2025. Available online: https://www.fao.org/4/x9656e/X9656E.htm (accessed on July 1, 2025).
- PRC, “More Than 100,000 Fishing-Related Deaths Occur Each Year, Study Finds,” Pew Research Center (PRC), The Pew Charitable Trusts, November 2022. Available online: https://www.pew.org/-/media/assets/2022/12/fisher-mortality-brief-v3.pdf (accessed on July 1, 2025).
- WMO, “Global Observing System (GOS),” World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the United Nations, 2025. Available online: https://wmo.int/activities/global-observing-system-gos/global-observing-system-gos (accessed on July 1, 2025).
- NOAA, “National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2025. Available online: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (accessed on July 1, 2025).
- S. R. Smith, “Ship-based Contributions to Global Ocean, Weather, and Climate Observing Systems,” Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 6, article 434, 2019, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00434.
- EMSA, “Annual Overview of Marine Casualties and Incidents,” European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA), 2024. Available online: https://www.emsa.europa.eu/publications/item/5352-annual-overview-of-marine-casualties-and-incidents-2024.html (accessed on July 1, 2025).
- National Research Council, Opportunities to Improve Marine Forecasting. Washington, DC, USA: The National Academies Press, 1989, doi: 10.17226/1410.
- M. Nazarihaghighipashaki, B. E. Moen, and M. Bratveit, “Fatal Occupational Injuries in Fishing, Farming and Forestry 2010–2015,” Occupational Medicine, vol. 74, no. 7, pp. 523–529, October 2024, doi: 10.1093/occmed/kqae073.
- WMO, Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, WMO-No. 1194, Geneva: World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2017. Available online: https://cyclone.wmo.int/pdf/Global-Guide-to-Tropical-Cyclone-Forecasting.pdf (accessed on July 1, 2025).
- P. Bauer, A. Thorpe, and G. Brunet, “The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction,” Nature, vol. 525, pp. 47–55, 2015, doi: 10.1038/nature14956.
- J. R. Holton and G. J. Hakim, An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, 5th ed. Waltham, MA, USA: Academic Press, 2013.
- C. L. Loi, C.-C. Wu, and Y.-C. Liang, “Prediction of tropical cyclogenesis based on machine learning methods and its SHAP interpretation,” Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 1–20, March 2024, doi: 10.1029/2023MS003637.
- C. Kieu and Q. Nguyen, “Binary dataset for machine learning applications to tropical cyclone formation prediction,” Scientific Data, vol. 11, article no. 446, pp. 1–10, May 2024, doi: 10.1038/s41597-024-03281-5.
- H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, et al., “The ERA5 global reanalysis,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 146, no. 730, pp. 1999–2049, May 2020, doi: 10.1002/qj.3803.
- D. Fan, S. J. Greybush, E. E. Clothiaux, and D. J. Gagne, “Physically explainable deep learning for convective initiation nowcasting using GOES-16 satellite observations,” Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, vol. 3, e230098, 2024, doi: 10.1175/AIES-D-23-0098.1.
- B. Tong, G. Hu, and Z. Duan, “Transformer-based full-track simulation of tropical cyclones,” Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, vol. 265, article no. 106176, 2025, doi: 10.1016/j.jweia.2025.106176.
- W. Girard, H. Xu, and D. Yan, “SeADL: self-adaptive deep learning for real-time marine visibility forecasting using multi-source sensor data,” Sensors, vol. 26, no. 2, article no. 676, pp. 1–28, 2026, doi: 10.3390/s26020676.
- V. Chandola, A. Banerjee, and V. Kumar, “Anomaly detection: a survey,” ACM Computing Surveys, vol. 41, no. 3, article 15, pp. 1–58, July 2009, doi: 10.1145/1541880.1541882.
- J. J. Downs and E. F. Vogel, “A plant-wide industrial process control problem,” Computers & Chemical Engineering, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 245–255, 1993.
- Q. Cheng, K. Hong, K. Huang, and Z. Liu, “Evaluating effectiveness and identifying appropriate methods for anomaly detection in intelligent transportation systems,” IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, vol. 26, no. 8, pp. 11442–11453, Aug. 2025, doi: 10.1109/TITS.2025.3580960.
- T. Inaba, “Supply chain anomaly detection by using simulation and machine learning,” in Proceedings of the 2025 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM), Melbourne, Australia, December 7–10, 2025, pp. 6–10, doi: 10.1109/IEEM63636.2025.11357657.
- G. Pang, C. Shen, L. Cao, and A. V. D. Hengel, “Deep learning for anomaly detection: a review,” ACM Computing Surveys, vol. 54, no. 2, article 38, pp. 1–38, March 2022, doi: 10.1145/3439950.
- G. Zhu, H. Zhao, H. Liu, and H. Sun, “A novel LSTM-GAN algorithm for time series anomaly detection,” in Proceedings of the 2019 Prognostics and System Health Management Conference (PHM-Qingdao), Qingdao, China, 2019, pp. 1–6, doi: 10.1109/PHM-Qingdao46334.2019.8942842.
- M. R. Fachrezi, A. F. Ihsan, and W. Astuti, “Anomaly detection using LSTM-based deep learning on natural gas pipeline operational data,” in Proceedings of the 2024 12th International Conference on Information and Communication Technology (ICoICT), Bandung, Indonesia, August 7–8, 2024, pp. 500–506, doi: 10.1109/ICoICT61617.2024.10698714.
- M. Du, F. Li, G. Zheng, and V. Srikumar, “DeepLog: anomaly detection and diagnosis from system logs through deep learning,” in Proceedings of the 2017 ACM SIGSAC Conference on Computer and Communications Security (CCS ’17), Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, pp. 1285–1298, 2017, doi: 10.1145/3133956.3134015.
- Y. Su, Y. Zhao, C. Niu, R. Liu, W. Sun, and D. Pei, “Robust anomaly detection for multivariate time series through stochastic recurrent neural network,” in Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining (KDD ’19), Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, pp. 2828–2837, 2019, doi: 10.1145/3292500.3330672.
- S. Tuli, G. Casale, and N. R. Jennings, “TranAD: deep transformer networks for anomaly detection in multivariate time series data,” in Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 1201–1214, 2022, doi: 10.14778/3514061.3514067.
- K. Berahmand, F. Daneshfar, E. S. Salehi, Y. Li, and Y. Xu, “Autoencoders and their applications in machine learning: a survey,” Artificial Intelligence Review, vol. 57, article no. 28, 2024, doi: 10.1007/s10462-023-10662-6.
- S. Givnan, C. Chalmers, P. Fergus, S. Ortega-Martorell, and T. Whalley, “Anomaly detection using autoencoder reconstruction upon industrial motors,” Sensors, vol. 22, no. 9, p. 3166, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.3390/s22093166.
- S. Ahmad, K. Styp-Rekowski, S. Nedelkoski, and O. Kao, “Autoencoder-based condition monitoring and anomaly detection method for rotating machines,” in Proceedings of the 2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data), Atlanta, GA, USA, pp. 4093–4102, 2020, doi: 10.1109/BigData50022.2020.9378015.
- T.-W. Tang, W.-H. Kuo, J.-H. Lan, C.-F. Ding, H. Hsu, and H.-T. Yang, “Anomaly detection neural network with dual auto-encoders GAN and its industrial inspection applications,” Sensors, vol. 20, no. 12, article no. 3336, 2020, doi: 10.3390/s20123336.
- P. Malhotra, A. Ramakrishnan, G. Anand, L. Vig, P. Agarwal, and G. Shroff, “LSTM-based encoder-decoder for multi-sensor anomaly detection,” in Proceedings of the ICML 2016 Anomaly Detection Workshop, New York, NY, USA, June 24, 2016, doi: 10.48550/arXiv.1607.00148.
- T. Kim, J. Kim, and I. You, “An anomaly detection method based on multiple LSTM-autoencoder models for in-vehicle network,” Electronics, vol. 12, no. 17, article no. 3543, pp. 1–17, 2023, doi: 10.3390/electronics12173543.
- F. M. Bianchi, L. Livi, K. Mikalsen, M. Kampffmeyer, and R. Jenssen, “Learning representations of multivariate time series with missing data,” Pattern Recognition, vol. 96, article no. 106973, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.patcog.2019.106973.
- G. Pallotta, M. Vespe, and K. Bryan, “Vessel pattern knowledge discovery from AIS data: a framework for anomaly detection and route prediction,” Entropy, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 2218–2245, 2013, doi: 10.3390/e15062218.
- T. T. Fujita, The Downburst: Microburst and Macroburst, Project Report, Satellite and Mesometeorology Research Project (SMRP), Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA, 1985.
- T. M. Weckwerth, “The effect of small-scale moisture variability on thunderstorm initiation,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 128, no. 12, pp. 4017–4030, December 2000, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)129<4017:TEOSSM>2.0.CO;2.
- R. J. Small, S. P. de Szoeke, S. P. Xie, L. O’Neill, H. Seo, Q. Song, P. Cornillon, M. Spall, and S. Minobe, “Air–sea interaction over ocean fronts and eddies,” Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, vol. 45, no. 3–4, pp. 274–319, August 2008, doi: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2008.01.001.
- L. H. Holthuijsen, Waves in Oceanic and Coastal Waters. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
- J. J. Jensen, A. E. Mansour, and A. S. Olsen, “Estimation of ship motions using closed-form expressions,” Ocean Engineering, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 61–85, 2004, doi: 10.1016/S0029-8018(03)00108-2.
- K. R. Knapp, M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond, and C. J. Neumann, “The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone best track data,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 91, no. 3, pp. 363–376, 2010, doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1.
- S. M. Lundberg and S.-I. Lee, “A unified approach to interpreting model predictions,” in Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS ’17), Curran Associates Inc., Red Hook, NY, USA, pp. 4768–4777, 2017.
- K. Bi, L. Xie, H. Zhang, X. Chen, X. Gu, and Q. Tian, “Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks,” Nature, vol. 619, pp. 533–538, 2023, doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06185-3.
- Snehashish Srivastava, Haiping Xu, Donghui Yan, Ramprasad Balasubramanian, “Dynamic Error Management in SAP: A Comprehensive Analysis”, Journal of Engineering Research and Sciences, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 21–26, 2026. doi: 10.55708/js0503003
